Seat Allocations at John Wayne Airport
The
Newport Beach agreement:
The 2003 settlement agreement amendment between the county and Newport
Beach limits John Wayne airport to serving 10.3 million annual passengers.
The agreement
does not limit the number of seats
(including empty seats) that the airlines can fly.
Staying below the MAP cap:
As a consequence of airport management and the Board of Supervisors not
allocating the full passenger cap, each year,
hundreds of thousands fewer passengers are served at John Wayne than
the 10,300,000 allowed by the settlement agreement.
The following table gives the Board of Supervisors’ seat capacity
allocations to the airlines since the passenger cap was reset to 10.3
MAP. The table includes the airport manager's predictions of passenger
count for the allocations recommended and the actual passenger results
measured at the end of the year. The airport manager has some
discretion to adjust the allocations during the year and to withdraw or
add allocated seats when he deems it necessary.
|
Plan Year
April-March
|
BOS action
date
|
BOS
Approved
allocation
|
JWA Mgr’s
predicted passengers for plan year
|
Actual
passengers
for plan year |
MAP cap
allowed
|
Difference:
Actual passengers
vs. MAP cap |
|
2003-04
|
Jan 28,
2003
|
12,284,920
Carrier seats +
333,795
Commuter passengers |
8,000,000
|
8,790,734
|
10,300,000
|
-1,509,266
|
|
2004-05
|
Jan 13,
2004
|
12,532,078
Carrier seats +
523,309
Commuter passengers |
8,700,000
to
9,300,000
|
9,379,772
|
10,300,000
|
-920,228
|
|
2005-06
|
Feb. 8,
2005
|
12,771,764
Carrier seats + 488,607
Commuter
passengers
|
9,600,000
|
9,605,194
|
10,300,000
|
-694,806
|
|
2006-07
|
Feb. 7,
2006
|
12,771,764
Carrier seats +500,000
Commuter
passengers
|
10,038,690
|
9,765,238
|
10,300,000
|
-534,762
|
|
2007-08
|
Dec. 19.
2006
|
13,182,672
Carrier seats + 500,000 Commuter passengers
|
9,600,000
|
9,855,800
|
10,300,000
|
-444,200
|
|
2008-09
|
Jan. 15,
2008
|
12,872,800
Carrier seats +453,950 commuter passengers |
10,028,984
approx.
|
|
10,300,000
|
|
County procedures for
implementing the agreement:
The county developed the Commercial Access Plan and Regulation as its
detailed procedures for allocating the number of passengers stipulated
in the settlement agreement amongst the various air carriers. The Board
of Supervisors is free to modify the procedures so long as they do not
conflict with the Newport Beach Settlement Agreement. The access plan
allocates passengers to commuter airlines but seats to air carriers.
For more on this arrangement see
Footnote below:
The allocation of seats necessitates predicting airline load factors
months in advance in order to keep the passenger count within the
limits of the settlement agreement. Management must estimate how many
of the seats it allocates to the airlines either will not be flown or
will fly empty. Each year, more than three million empty seats are
flown in and out of John Wayne.
Forecasting of the relationship between passenger and seat counts is
very difficult due to factors – such as aircraft configuration,
timetables, ticket prices and industry factors - that are beyond the
airport’s control.
In order to play it safe and not exceed the settlement agreement
allowance for passengers, the airport has maintained a cushion in its
seat allocations. Airline requests for additional seat allocations have
been denied in the effort to stay below the MAP cap.
Click
here for an example
of how one airline was fined for exceeding their allocation even
though the airport was operating well below the allowed MAP cap.
This website’s position:
A deal is a deal and we do not propose that it be disregarded. The deal
is for 10.3 MAP.
So long as 10.3 million passengers want to fly from John Wayne and the
airlines want to provide the service, they should not be denied access.
If the county would modify its Access Plan and Procedures so as to make
the full MAP cap available, the airlines would benefit, the airport
would generate more revenue and the flying public would enjoy better
service.
Footnote: This
December 2, 2007 email from Jenny Wedge, Manager of Public Relations to
this website's editor – discussing the county's procedures for
allocating seats rather than passengers - is reproduced in its entirety.
Leonard:
On November 10, 2007 you asked a number of questions regarding the
allocation of operating capacity at John Wayne Airport. I have
spoken with our Airport Access and Noise staff and am pleased to
provide the following:
1. “What prevents the airport from making passenger
allocations to all airlines, up to the total number of passengers
allowed in the settlement agreement, thereby avoiding the seat capacity
allocation process?
Capacity allocations are currently governed by the Phase 2 Commercial
Airline Access Plan and Regulation. The current version was
approved by the Board of Supervisors. The Access Plan
specifically requires the allocation of seat capacity.
2. If the answer is that the seat allocation process
is specifically required by agreement between the settling parties,
what document requires this, and why could it not be amended by the
parties if the concept of a passenger allocation system is more
workable?
Although the Access Plan currently provides for the allocation of seat
capacity to air carriers, nothing in the Settlement Agreement prohibits
the County from allocating passenger capacity instead of seat
capacity. However, if the County determined that it was
interested in allocating to the air carriers in this manner, a number
of substantial revisions would be required in the Access Plan. In
connection with this process, it would be important to provide the air
carriers and other interested parties with an opportunity to provide
input on the possible revisions to the allocation process and to
discuss whether the added assurances provided by allocating passenger
capacity outweigh the flexibility and assurance of providing the
maximum amount of available capacity at the Airport that is provided by
allocating seat capacity.
Your e-mail also states that “it is reasonable to ask whether it is
better to allocate passengers rather than seats to the air
carriers.” I thought it might be helpful to share some of the
logic behind the concept of allocating seat capacity.
As you know, in addition to an allocation of Regulated Average Daily
Departures (ADDs), air carriers must also receive an allocation of seat
capacity. This seat capacity reflects the specific equipment each
air carrier intends to use during the Plan Year. Once the seat
capacity necessary to support the intended operation of the Regulated
ADDs is allocated, the County allocates additional seat capacity to
requesting airlines up to the level at which the County believes will
allow it to remain within the Settlement Agreement Million Annual
Passenger (MAP) limitation.
This additional (“supplemental”) seat capacity is allocated annually,
and is an important basis for the operation of Class E aircraft by the
air carriers at JWA. All Class E operations (with the exception
of the recently created Permanent Class E ADDs) are based upon
supplemental operating capacity in the form of “seats.” In the
event circumstances indicate that the annual MAP limitation may be
exceeded, this supplemental seat capacity is the county's “safety
valve” for first withdrawal of capacity to remain within the MAP
limitation.
The county's position has long been that there is a tradeoff between
allocating seat capacity versus passenger capacity. More certainty
could be provided with respect to compliance with the MAP limitation
without the possibility of withdrawals by allocating passengers, but
this would likely result in less Class E capacity available to the air
carriers. Allocating seats, however, provides the County with the
flexibility to maximize capacity allocations for Class E operations
while still providing a safety mechanism for withdrawal of this
capacity, if necessary.
It is important to note that allocating passenger capacity would ensure
MAP compliance without the possibility of capacity withdrawals.
It would, however, also take away the county's flexibility in ensuring
that the maximum capacity is flown each Plan Year. In order to
maintain that flexibility, the County would have to consider the same
two variables used in allocating seats, i.e., average passenger
(instead of seat) capacity of the ADDs and the average annual load
factor.
In sum, the allocation of seat capacity (instead of passenger capacity)
creates a mechanism that:
• provides the maximum feasible flexibility to the
air carriers in selecting the mix of aircraft types used by them in
their service at JWA;
• ensures that the maximum amount of available
capacity is used to serve the air traveling public; and
• provides a fair mechanism by which air carrier
capacity reductions can be effected if the County determines that
reductions are necessary to ensure adherence to the MAP limitation.
January
9, 2008
rev. April 8, 2008